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Abstract Land use change (LUC) alters the global carbon (C) stock, but our estimation of the alteration remains uncertain and is a major impediment to predicting the global C cycle. The uncertainty is partly due to the limited number and geographical bias of observations, and limited exploration of its predictors. Here we generated a comprehensive global database of 5,980 observations from 790 articles. The number of sites evaluated is at least seven times larger than in previous meta‐analyses. Our constrained estimates of different LUC's effects on soil organic C (SOC) and their variations across global climates reveal underestimation/overestimation in previous estimates. Converting forests and grasslands to croplands reduced SOC by 24.5% ± 1.53% (−11.03 ± 1.06 Mg ha⁻¹) and 22.7% ± 1.22% (−8.09 ± 0.67 Mg ha⁻¹), while 28.0% ± 1.56% (4.46 ± 0.42 Mg ha⁻¹) and 33.5% ± 1.68% (5.8 ± 0.38 Mg ha⁻¹) increases, respectively, were obtained in the reverse processes. Converting forests to grasslands decreased SOC by 2.1% ± 1.22% (−1.13 ± 0.44 Mg ha⁻¹), while the reverse process increased SOC by 18.6% ± 1.73% (3.31 ± 0.51 Mg ha⁻¹). Modeled relative importance of 10 drivers of LUC's impact on SOC revealed that higher initial SOC (iSOC) does not solely determine SOC loss in SOC‐negative LUC scenarios as previously proposed. Across four decades, reconverting croplands to forests and grasslands recovered only 49.5% (6.1 ± 0.51 Mg ha⁻¹) and 75.3% (7.0 ± 0.38 Mg ha⁻¹) of the iSOC, respectively, indicating the need for protecting C‐rich ecosystems. Our global data set advances information on LUC's effect on SOC and can be valuable to constrain Earth system models to reliably estimate global SOC stocks and plan climate change mitigation strategies. 

Abstract Microbes are the drivers of soil phosphorus (P) cycling in terrestrial ecosystems; however, the role of soil microbes in mediating P cycling in P‐rich soils during primary succession remains uncertain. This study examined the impacts of bacterial community structure (diversity and composition) and its functional potential (absolute abundances of P‐cycling functional genes) on soil P cycling along a 130‐year glacial chronosequence on the eastern Tibetan Plateau. Bacterial community structure was a better predictor of soil P fractions than P‐cycling genes along the chronosequence. After glacier retreat, the solubilization of inorganic P and the mineralization of organic P were significantly enhanced by increased bacterial diversity, changed interspecific interactions, and abundant species involved in soil P mineralization, thereby increasing P availability. Although 84% of P‐cycling genes were associated with organic P mineralization, these genes were more closely associated with soil organic carbon than with organic P. Bacterial carbon demand probably determined soil P turnover, indicating the dominant role of organic matter decomposition processes in P‐rich alpine soils. Moreover, the significant decrease in the complexity of the bacterial co‐occurrence network and the taxa‐gene‐P network at the later stage indicates a declining dominance of the bacterial community in driving soil P cycling with succession. Our results reveal that bacteria with a complex community structure have a prominent potential for biogeochemical P cycling in P‐rich soils during the early stages of primary succession. 

Abstract Large across‐model spread in simulating land carbon (C) dynamics has been ubiquitously demonstrated in model intercomparison projects (MIPs), and became a major impediment in advancing climate change prediction. Thus, it is imperative to identify underlying sources of the spread. Here, we used a novel matrix approach to analytically pin down the sources of across‐model spread in transient peatland C dynamics in response to a factorial combination of two atmospheric CO 2 levels and five temperature levels. We developed a matrix‐based MIP by converting the C cycle module of eight land models (i.e., TEM, CENTURY4, DALEC2, TECO, FBDC, CASA, CLM4.5 and ORCHIDEE) into eight matrix models. While the model average of ecosystem C storage was comparable to the measurement, the simulation differed largely among models, mainly due to inter‐model difference in baseline C residence time. Models generally overestimated net ecosystem production (NEP), with a large spread that was mainly attributed to inter‐model difference in environmental scalar. Based on the sources of spreads identified, we sequentially standardized model parameters to shrink simulated ecosystem C storage and NEP to almost none. Models generally captured the observed negative response of NEP to warming, but differed largely in the magnitude of response, due to differences in baseline C residence time and temperature sensitivity of decomposition. While there was a lack of response of NEP to elevated CO 2 (eCO 2 ) concentrations in the measurements, simulated NEP responded positively to eCO 2 concentrations in most models, due to the positive responses of simulated net primary production. Our study used one case study in Minnesota peatland to demonstrate that the sources of across‐model spreads in simulating transient C dynamics can be precisely traced to model structures and parameters, regardless of their complexity, given the protocol that all the matrix models were driven by the same gross primary production and environmental variables. 

Abstract BackgroundCountries have long been making efforts by reducing greenhouse-gas emissions to mitigate climate change. In the agreements of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, involved countries have committed to reduction targets. However, carbon (C) sink and its involving processes by natural ecosystems remain difficult to quantify. MethodsUsing a transient traceability framework, we estimated country-level land C sink and its causing components by 2050 simulated by 12 Earth System Models involved in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under RCP8.5. ResultsThe top 20 countries with highest C sink have the potential to sequester 62 Pg C in total, among which, Russia, Canada, USA, China, and Brazil sequester the most. This C sink consists of four components: production-driven change, turnover-driven change, change in instantaneous C storage potential, and interaction between production-driven change and turnover-driven change. The four components account for 49.5%, 28.1%, 14.5%, and 7.9% of the land C sink, respectively. ConclusionThe model-based estimates highlight that land C sink potentially offsets a substantial proportion of greenhouse-gas emissions, especially for countries where net primary production (NPP) likely increases substantially and inherent residence time elongates.